The Profitability Check
Next10 Labs / Following the Value

Free tool from Following the Value

Which products and bundles should you push this Black Friday?

Your biggest seller may not be your most profitable offer. Use your own figures to see what each product and bundle earns after selling costs and ads, the ROAS it needs to break even, and which to push, reprice, rebundle or test before Black Friday, and why. We call this the MVM view: margin, velocity and materiality, or what each offer earns, how quickly it sells, and how much it matters.

What each offer earnsPer order, after product cost, platform and creator commission, fulfilment, returns, promotions and ads.
Its break-even ROASOn the same basis as the ROAS TikTok reports, as a starting point for your GMV Max target.
A view of your whole rangeWhich offers to back, reprice or rebundle, test, or stop, plotted as in Exhibit 6.2 of the report.

Choose how to start

Short of time or data? We can read your Shop with you. The first conversation is on us. Contact us at hello@next10labs.ai.

Built on three lessons from the report

  • Know the break-even ROAS of every product or offer, and set your GMV Max target from it if profit matters.Pull-out p.53 · Exhibit 2.3, p.23
  • Choose what you push, and how you bundle it. The same bestseller lost money as a single and made money as a two-pack.Exhibit 3.1, p.30 · Playbook 7
  • Review every product and offer by margin, velocity and materiality. Back true heroes, rework workhorses, test potential gold, stop or prove the rest.Exhibit 6.2, p.50

Don't have the report? Get Following the Value free at next10labs.ai.

Your figures stay in this browser. Nothing is sent to us, and nothing is saved unless you choose. Every cost is an assumption you can change. An estimate of Shop contribution, not a measure of halo or incrementality. How it works

Your read

Which offers earn the right to scale

A Shop contribution estimate, before fixed overheads and wider business effects.

Your shop / last 30 days

The question is not only which offer sells. It is which offer earns the right to scale.

Bundles / sets Multipacks Singles
True heroSells fast and earns well. A candidate to back.
WorkhorseSells fast on a thin margin or a loss. Push the ones that earn; reprice or rebundle the ones that lose.
Potential goldEarns well, sells slowly. A candidate to test.
Stop or proveSlow and thin. Stop it, or prove why to keep it.
Product or offerOrdersAvg price Before adsper order After marketingper order MarginTotal earned Est. break-evenROAS TikTokreported ROAS Profit targetROAS Read

Estimated break-even on your reported ROAS basis. Where you enter TikTok's reported ROAS, the break-even is put on that same basis, so you can compare the two directly. Use it as a starting point for your GMV Max target, then monitor actual contribution. It is a historical estimate, not a guarantee of future profit, and it does not show whether sales would have happened anyway. It assumes your sales and ad figures cover the same dates and products. † No ad spend: break-even shown on sales value. ‡ Ad spend but no reported ROAS entered: break-even shown on sales value.

One offer

Check one offer, or test a change before you scale it

No spreadsheet needed. Choose A new offer and enter one product's figures per order to see what it earns and the ROAS it needs to break even. Or start from an offer in your range and change its price, product cost, fulfilment, creator share or ad spend. To test a new bundle, enter the bundle's price and its combined product cost.

£
£
£
%
£
x
Optional. Puts break-even on TikTok's basis.
CurrentTest

Uses your cost settings for commission, VAT, returns, promotions, sampling and other costs. It estimates what each order would earn. It cannot tell you how many people will buy it; that is what a bounded test is for.

Your numbers

One row per product or offer

Use the same 30 days for every figure, from Seller Center and your GMV Max or product ads report. Give each bundle and multipack its own row, because each offer has its own economics.

This is the example shop. Its figures are invented and locked, so they can never mix with yours.

Sales: what customers paid for this offer, after discounts and before refunds. If your figure is already net of refunds, set returns to 0 below. Say under Your costs whether it includes VAT.

Orders: the number of times this offer was bought. A 2-pack bought once is one order. If customers often buy several products in one parcel, lower the fulfilment cost for those rows, or the check will over-count delivery.

Affiliate share: the part of this offer's sales that came through creators, entered as 82 for 82%. Enter 0 if none.

Product cost and fulfilment: optional, per order. Leave blank to use the defaults under Your costs. A fixed product cost is better than a percentage when you are testing discounts.

Product or offerTypeSalesOrdersAd spendTikTok ROASAffiliate share %Product costper order, optionalFulfilmentper order, optional

Your costs

The cost of each order, before ads

These start at the assumptions used in Following the Value. Replace them with your own. Percentages are of the price the customer paid.

If yes, the VAT share of the price (one-sixth) is taken off before other costs.
%
Product, packaging, landed cost. Used where no per-order cost is entered.
%
Platform referral fee
%
Applied to each row's affiliate share
£
Pick, pack and delivery
%
Set to 0 if your sales figure is already net of refunds
%
Smart Promotions and vouchers not already taken off your sales figure
%
Seeding, free product, content fees
%
Agency fees, LIVE costs, payment fees
orders
Dividing line on the chart. Tune to your scale.
%
Margin after marketing

What is your goal this Black Friday?

Early momentum can be the right call. If you choose it, set the loss per order you are prepared to fund, and the check shows the ROAS target that keeps you inside it.

£/order

Your privacy

The check runs entirely in your browser. Your figures are never sent to Next10 Labs. They are not saved unless you tick the box below, in which case they are kept on this device only.

Take it further

Turn your read into a decision brief

Three steps, about five minutes. Your AI assistant reads the report with your results and writes a one-page brief: which offers to push, reprice, rebundle, test or stop, the GMV Max targets to start from, and what to check before Black Friday.

  1. Get the report. Get Following the Value free, then save the PDF.
  2. Copy your results with the brief prompt. They include your assumptions and the limits of the check.

  3. Open the AI assistant you already use, attach the PDF and paste. It asks you up to three questions, then writes the brief. Pasting shares these figures with that AI service.

Rather work through it with us? Your headline figures come with you into the enquiry form, where you can edit them. Nothing is sent until you press send.

Bring this read to Next10
How the check works, and what it cannot tell you

Contribution before ads, per order. The price paid, less VAT if your sales include it, product cost, TikTok commission, creator commission on the affiliate share, fulfilment, returns, promotions, sampling and other selling costs.

before ads = price − VAT (if included) − product cost − price × (commission + returns + promotions + sampling + other) − price × creator % × affiliate share − fulfilment

Contribution after marketing. Before ads, less ad spend per order. Margin is that figure as a share of price. This is the vertical axis on the chart.

Estimated break-even ROAS. The ROAS at which ad spend uses up everything left before ads. TikTok's reported GMV Max ROI counts gross revenue including some organic and affiliate orders, so a textbook calculation on your sales figure gives a different answer. Where you enter the reported ROAS, we put the break-even on that basis by scaling it by how far your actual spend sits from the spend you can afford:

break-even ROAS = TikTok ROAS × ad spend ÷ (before ads × orders)

For a momentum target, the affordable spend rises by the loss you accept on every order. If an offer loses money before any ads, or has nothing left for ads, no ROAS makes it pay back, and the check says so.

The read. Velocity is orders in the period, margin is contribution after marketing, and materiality is bubble size (sales value). The dividing lines are the two thresholds you set. The four reads are candidates for a decision, not decisions.

What it cannot tell you. It reads Shop orders only, from past figures. It does not show whether a sale would have happened anyway, what a new customer is worth over time, what moved to your website, Amazon or a retailer, stock position, or your fixed overheads. Those are the questions in Chapters 4 and 5 of the report, and the ones we work on with brands.

Bring us the decision you're facing.

The check shows which offers to push. It can't tell you whether TikTok Shop is doing its job for your business: winning customers worth keeping, growing retail, launching new products, and how you'll measure it. That's the work we do with brands. The first conversation is on us.

hello@next10labs.ai

Bring us your decision